Rotoworld: 20 impact rookies for 2012 NFL season
Last season, two rookies (Cam Newton, Andy Dalton) threw for at least 3,000 yards. DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu were difference-makers on the ground when given opportunities. A.J. Green went over 1,000 yards while Julio Jones and Torrey Smith came on strong late.
The 2012 season won?t be any different. A fistful of rookies will emerge from the depth charts and be fantasy assets in Year One. We?ve got the ball rolling with Draft Grades from Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling. We?ll have the Dynasty spin on the rookies and veteran winners/losers.
For now, let?s sink our teeth into which rookies have the best chance of helping owners in 2012. ?
1. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns
The best pure talent in the draft also happens to play fantasy?s most important position. Richardson will step right in as the Browns? early-down back, third-down back and goal-line back. The Browns didn?t give up four picks to move up one spot on Thursday night just for their health. Widely considered the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson in 2007, Richardson has immediate RB1 upside.
2. Doug Martin, RB, Bucs
Simply put, LeGarrette Blount is not a special talent. He has lost six fumbles in the last 27 games, runs to contact, can?t catch passes and doesn?t see the field when his team is behind. The Bucs know this, which is why they spent a first-round pick on a complete back in Boise State?s Doug Martin. At the very least, Martin will immediately step in as the primary passing-down back on a team led by check down artist Josh Freeman. But we suspect that the rookie won?t have a hard time taking over full-time feature back duties quickly.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins
A running quarterback is a fantasy owner?s dream. It?s why we?ll be high on Jake Locker this year and why we were high on Tim Tebow last year. It?s why Michael Vick will still be elite and Cam Newton can?t flop. RGIII?s unique athleticism fits perfectly with Mike Shanahan?s bootleg-heavy offense. He ran for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns at Baylor last season. That?s not comparable to Newton?s 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns at Auburn in 2010, but that?s why Griffin is only a QB2 with upside for now. ?
4. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
Since Arizona traded away Anquan Boldin following the 2009 season, they?ve tried Steve Breaston, Early Doucet and Andre Roberts as complements opposite Larry Fitzgerald. None have worked. When watching Floyd, the first thing you notice is his freakish strength and physical play combined with 4.47 speed. That projects to fit perfectly across from Fitzgerald. We know Floyd will see plenty of single coverage as a rookie.
5. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
If Jeffery had been able to turn pro after his sophomore season, he likely would have a top-20 pick. But after a miserable junior year that saw him battle weight problems and quarterback issues at South Carolina, the Bears were able to snag him at No. 45 overall last Friday. Jeffery will immediately slide right in as the starting flanker opposite Brandon Marshall in Chicago and now has Jay Cutler throwing him the ball. Jeffery?s ?go get it? ability and strong hands in the red zone have the potential to be difference-making.
6. David Wilson, RB, Giants
Ahmad Bradshaw has missed just five games over the last three seasons, but that?s not a complete picture of his injury history. Over the last three offseasons, he?s had four lower-leg surgeries and a bone marrow injection. He has screws in his right foot and a stress fracture. So as Bradshaw enters his age-26 season, there?s some reason for concern. David Wilson is a true first-round talent at the running back position as he replaces Brandon Jacobs in the Giants? backfield. There?s upside for a lot more than the lesser half of a timeshare.
7. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars
Blackmon immediately steps in as the Jags? No. 1 receiver, but he?s not the same caliber of talent as Julio Jones, A.J. Green or Dez Bryant. Additionally, he?ll be catching passes from Blaine Gabbert, perhaps the NFL?s least effective quarterback in 2011. Gabbert?s rookie tape was so bad that it?s hard to project any kind of significant step forward. There?s some risk here.
8. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts
Fleener has a lot going for him as a rookie. At 6?6/247 with a 4.47 40-yard dash and 27 bench press reps at the Combine, his measurables compare favorably with Jimmy Graham. He?s also stepping right into a starting role and will have college teammate Andrew Luck as his quarterback. Make no mistake -- Fleener is a pure pass-catcher and will be a fantasy sleeper at the tight end spot.
9. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts
Luck might be the most prepared of any quarterback to enter the NFL?ever. That said, the Colts are in a major rebuilding phase. His wide receivers right now include a declining Reggie Wayne, an unproven Donnie Avery and an oft-injured Austin Collie. Although Luck has good mobility, he ran for just 150 yards and two touchdowns on 47 carries at Stanford last season.
10. Stephen Hill, WR, Jets
You haven?t heard of Stephen Hill because he was a wide receiver in Georgia Tech?s triple-option offense. That means he was just a deep threat and blocker, much like Demaryius Thomas a few years back. But Hill is 6?4/215 with freakish 4.36 speed and a 39.5 inch vertical. In other words, he was one of the best raw athletes in the draft. The Jets are already making Calvin Johnson comparisons and saying Hill is expected to start opposite Santonio Holmes right away.
Last season, two rookies (Cam Newton, Andy Dalton) threw for at least 3,000 yards. DeMarco Murray and Roy Helu were difference-makers on the ground when given opportunities. A.J. Green went over 1,000 yards while Julio Jones and Torrey Smith came on strong late.
The 2012 season won?t be any different. A fistful of rookies will emerge from the depth charts and be fantasy assets in Year One. We?ve got the ball rolling with Draft Grades from Evan Silva and Chris Wesseling. We?ll have the Dynasty spin on the rookies and veteran winners/losers.
For now, let?s sink our teeth into which rookies have the best chance of helping owners in 2012. ?
1. Trent Richardson, RB, Browns
The best pure talent in the draft also happens to play fantasy?s most important position. Richardson will step right in as the Browns? early-down back, third-down back and goal-line back. The Browns didn?t give up four picks to move up one spot on Thursday night just for their health. Widely considered the best running back prospect since Adrian Peterson in 2007, Richardson has immediate RB1 upside.
2. Doug Martin, RB, Bucs
Simply put, LeGarrette Blount is not a special talent. He has lost six fumbles in the last 27 games, runs to contact, can?t catch passes and doesn?t see the field when his team is behind. The Bucs know this, which is why they spent a first-round pick on a complete back in Boise State?s Doug Martin. At the very least, Martin will immediately step in as the primary passing-down back on a team led by check down artist Josh Freeman. But we suspect that the rookie won?t have a hard time taking over full-time feature back duties quickly.
3. Robert Griffin III, QB, Redskins
A running quarterback is a fantasy owner?s dream. It?s why we?ll be high on Jake Locker this year and why we were high on Tim Tebow last year. It?s why Michael Vick will still be elite and Cam Newton can?t flop. RGIII?s unique athleticism fits perfectly with Mike Shanahan?s bootleg-heavy offense. He ran for 699 yards and 10 touchdowns at Baylor last season. That?s not comparable to Newton?s 1,473 yards and 20 touchdowns at Auburn in 2010, but that?s why Griffin is only a QB2 with upside for now. ?
4. Michael Floyd, WR, Cardinals
Since Arizona traded away Anquan Boldin following the 2009 season, they?ve tried Steve Breaston, Early Doucet and Andre Roberts as complements opposite Larry Fitzgerald. None have worked. When watching Floyd, the first thing you notice is his freakish strength and physical play combined with 4.47 speed. That projects to fit perfectly across from Fitzgerald. We know Floyd will see plenty of single coverage as a rookie.
5. Alshon Jeffery, WR, Bears
If Jeffery had been able to turn pro after his sophomore season, he likely would have a top-20 pick. But after a miserable junior year that saw him battle weight problems and quarterback issues at South Carolina, the Bears were able to snag him at No. 45 overall last Friday. Jeffery will immediately slide right in as the starting flanker opposite Brandon Marshall in Chicago and now has Jay Cutler throwing him the ball. Jeffery?s ?go get it? ability and strong hands in the red zone have the potential to be difference-making.
6. David Wilson, RB, Giants
Ahmad Bradshaw has missed just five games over the last three seasons, but that?s not a complete picture of his injury history. Over the last three offseasons, he?s had four lower-leg surgeries and a bone marrow injection. He has screws in his right foot and a stress fracture. So as Bradshaw enters his age-26 season, there?s some reason for concern. David Wilson is a true first-round talent at the running back position as he replaces Brandon Jacobs in the Giants? backfield. There?s upside for a lot more than the lesser half of a timeshare.
7. Justin Blackmon, WR, Jaguars
Blackmon immediately steps in as the Jags? No. 1 receiver, but he?s not the same caliber of talent as Julio Jones, A.J. Green or Dez Bryant. Additionally, he?ll be catching passes from Blaine Gabbert, perhaps the NFL?s least effective quarterback in 2011. Gabbert?s rookie tape was so bad that it?s hard to project any kind of significant step forward. There?s some risk here.
8. Coby Fleener, TE, Colts
Fleener has a lot going for him as a rookie. At 6?6/247 with a 4.47 40-yard dash and 27 bench press reps at the Combine, his measurables compare favorably with Jimmy Graham. He?s also stepping right into a starting role and will have college teammate Andrew Luck as his quarterback. Make no mistake -- Fleener is a pure pass-catcher and will be a fantasy sleeper at the tight end spot.
9. Andrew Luck, QB, Colts
Luck might be the most prepared of any quarterback to enter the NFL?ever. That said, the Colts are in a major rebuilding phase. His wide receivers right now include a declining Reggie Wayne, an unproven Donnie Avery and an oft-injured Austin Collie. Although Luck has good mobility, he ran for just 150 yards and two touchdowns on 47 carries at Stanford last season.
10. Stephen Hill, WR, Jets
You haven?t heard of Stephen Hill because he was a wide receiver in Georgia Tech?s triple-option offense. That means he was just a deep threat and blocker, much like Demaryius Thomas a few years back. But Hill is 6?4/215 with freakish 4.36 speed and a 39.5 inch vertical. In other words, he was one of the best raw athletes in the draft. The Jets are already making Calvin Johnson comparisons and saying Hill is expected to start opposite Santonio Holmes right away.
11. Marvin Jones, WR, Bengals
Yes, Jones went two rounds after Mohamed Sanu. But he?s more NFL-ready right now after playing in a pro-style offense at Cal. Jones has drawn comparisons to Chad Ochocinco throughout the draft process and is widely considered one of the weekend?s biggest sleepers. Jordan Shipley is a slot receiver, not true competition on the outside.
12. Brian Quick, WR, Rams
The weapon-desperate Rams didn?t use the No. 33 overall pick on a kid from Appalachian State to have him sit and develop. Quick has a basketball player?s body at 6?4/220 with ridiculously long/strong arms and 4.51 speed. It?s the kind of skill set that the highly accurate Sam Bradford has been dying for. Quick tentatively projects as the Rams? No. 1 receiver come Week 1.
13. Kendall Wright, WR, Titans
We?re always looking for guys that can do something special after they get their hands on the ball. Wright can certainly do that, and that?s why he went 20th overall. The reason he?s not ticketed for a major impact as a rookie is because of depth chart concerns. Kenny Britt (torn ACL) is expected to be ready for Week 1, Nate Washington is only 28 and coming off a career year, and Damian Williams showed some skills as a long-term No. 3 wideout.
14. Rueben Randle, WR, Giants
As we saw last season, the Giants? pass offense is explosive enough to support three wideouts. And with Mario Manningham now in San Francisco, Randle is the early favorite to line up outside in three-wide sets, kicking Victor Cruz into the slot. Randle slipped to No. 63 overall due to a relatively slow 40-time at the Combine, but he was fast enough to get open for 917 yards and eight touchdowns against SEC competition in 2011.
15. Brandon Weeden, QB, Browns
By now, everyone knows that Weeden is the oldest player ever drafted and will turn 29 in October. But from a redraft perspective, that?s not necessarily a bad thing. He?s obviously going to start in Week 1 and will have a long leash as a first-round pick. The problem is that his No. 1 receiver is Greg Little. At the exceptionally deep quarterback position, it?s going to be an uphill climb for Weeden in fantasy.
16. Ronnie Hillman, RB, Broncos
Note that the Broncos gave up two picks to move up 20 spots in the third round and snag Hillman. They clearly weren?t overly set on getting a ?power back? to team with Willis McGahee. Hillman won?t even be 21 until September and is a bit undersized at 5?9/200, but the depth chart in Denver isn?t that daunting. McGahee will be 31 in October and has a history of knee issues while Knowshon Moreno is coming off an ACL tear. Hillman?s skill set complements Peyton Manning well.
17. A.J. Jenkins, WR, 49ers
It?s certainly interesting that the Niners used their first-round pick on a wideout after brining in Mario Manningham and Randy Moss to team with Michael Crabtree this offseason. On the surface, it looks like a reach for a position that is not a need. Jenkins is going to have to make some noise in offseason workouts and at training camp to get on the redraft radar.
18. Lamar Miller, RB, Dolphins
Miller looks like a developmental project with Reggie Bush and Daniel Thomas atop the depth chart. But the Dolphins are going to a one-cut running scheme under new coach Joe Philbin and Miller fits that perfectly. Before last year, Bush had missed 20 games in the previous four seasons.
19. LaMichael James, RB, 49ers
The easy comparison here is Darren Sproles. James is lightning fast, but drastically undersized at 5?9/194. Frank Gore, Kendall Hunter and Brandon Jacobs are all clogging up the depth chart. A specialized package role for James as a rookie seems likely.
20. Mohamed Sanu, WR, Bengals
While most of the rookies on this list are game-changing playmakers, Sanu is more of a possession receiver. He had just four catches of 20 yards or more in his entire college career and ran a 4.67 at the combine. In the fantasy world, that?s just not good enough.
Honorable mention: Dolphins QB Ryan Tannehill, Saints WR Nick Toon, Rams WR Chris Givens
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